Politics

How Realistic Are Hillary's Chances?

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If you haven’t heard it before, it bears repeating.

From Ambinder:

If, say, voting ends and the press discovers that Obama has a secret second family in Idaho and all his superdelegates abandon him; if, for some reason, she wins 75% of the popular vote in the states after Ohio and Texas and half the remaining superdelegates; if, by slow attrition, [she] closes the delegate gap to about 70 and picks off two thirds of the remaining superdelegates; if the pledged (Obama) delegates concur with the credentials committee and seat the (Clintonian) Florida and Michigan delegations — then, yes, it’s possible.

Sounds doable to me!

  • http://www.iconicmidwest.blogspot.com Rich Horton

    The question is do the Demcorats have anyone we can go “off the board” with? There is a good chance neither Clinton or Obama will be able to win on a first ballot. Once you get to a second ballot all bets are off.

    Right now Clinton seems to be the only one preparing to WIN the nomination that way.

  • http://baldwinparkdemocrat.blogspot.com/ Kevin Callahan

    Hopefully this will all be over at the end of the night. This has gone on way too long. I’m afraid that people will get campaign fatigue and sit out the process. That would not be good for the Party.

  • H Kissinger

    I have a question. When they hit the convention in the summer neither candidate is going to have the delegates needed to win. They are both going to be within about 100 delegates of each other in totals and the most important thing that continually seems to be overlooked is that Barak Obama is going to have won nearly all his delegates from states that he will lose in November.

    So the question is this? WHY? Why should Hillary give up when she is so close and her powerful support comes from traditional democrats instead of DINO crossover RINOs trying to get her dethroned???

    In other words when the DNC actually takes a look at all this they have to realize that Obama’s support came from Republicans who will not. Repeat will not vote for Obama against John McCain.

    Why?

    Barak Obama is after all is the anti Republican. He is as far left as they come. He is after all supported by Moveon.org. Do I need to say more?

    All these RED states that have swept him into a small delegate lead or NOT going to vote for him come November and the states where Democrats are powerful…..HE LOST.

    He is excelling at being DINO to get the RINO’s to vote for him. Is that what our party really wants. And now he is slipping notes to all those he is offending saying……..ITS ALL LIES.

    Gee Imagine that. Lying to get nominated.

    Say it aint so Obama. Say it aint so.

  • john

    H Kissinger,

    So what you are saying, is either that the Dem’s in the blue states are not going to vote for Barrack, or that the Dem’s in the red states should have no voice in the party. What this actually says to me is that Barrack has more support than Hillary in the red states, the Dem’s in the blue states were going to vote Dem regardless the candidate. However, if we’re talking November, Hillary pisses off a whole lot of right wing (ie christian right and hardliners) Republicans enough to get them off their ass to vote against her. It hasn’t been shown that Barrack pisses them off this way. Most likely they might choose to stay home opposed to voting against Barrack and for McCain (which they’re not particularly happy with). So if you’re talking strategy, Barrack is a better bet. As we have seen in past elections, it is this group that takes the Republicans to victory, just as the independent vote (which Barrack also plays to) staying home kills the Dems.

    So, let’s talk strategy for November.

  • wj

    john, Kissinger’s argument comes down to this: only votes should be counted from folks who in November will vote for the Democrat regardless. Forget any chance to pick up voters (or even states!) that the Republicans won last time.

    Which would make more sense if the Democrats had won the last Presidential election. But I don’t recall it turning out that way.

  • H Kissinger

    No what I am saying is that come a BROKERED CONVENTION:

    These things need to be looked at and WILL be looked at. Why is it do you think that Barak Obama won Red States handily? I suggest it is because these states allowed crossover voting and the GOP absolutely despises Hillary. Given the fact that there is no GOP candidate that inspires the GOP voters then were very likely to crossover and make sure that Hillary is dethroned because of her absolute detestation within the Republican/conservative element of America.

    The question then has to be asked by the DNC should we allow republican crossovers to totally skew the process of electing the Democratic candidate.

  • John Calver

    It,s looking more like a third party might emerge in the shape of Barack,s New Democratic Party leaving Clinton to head up the traditional party a three way split would not be good for the Dem’s in November but it has a better future

  • http://westanddivided.blogspot.com/ mw

    John,
    Yes, this is commonly referred to as the Obama supporter “it isn’t going my way so I am going to take my ball and go home” strategy.

  • http://www.michaeledits.com Michael LaRocca

    Hey, winning elections is easy compared to dodging bullets.