Politics

Iran and the China syndrome

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  • http://centristcoalition.com/blog/ kranky kritter

    Draw a little guy with a gun on uncle sam’s shoulder named Israel, and it’ll be perfect.

  • http://politicalgraffiti.wordpress.com/ donar

    Actually I think Israel is going to whack Iran no matter who is behind them.

  • http://detroitskeptic.com/blogs Nick Benjamin

    Netanyahu won’t do anything without US permission, and he’s not going to get US permission. He’d expect favors in return, as would Israel’s friends in Congress, and that would make it virtually impossible to solve their dispute with the Palestineans.

    The Saudis, and the other Gulf monarchies might do something. They could almost certainly blow the Iranian Air Force out of the sky. Iran’s only decent fighter* is the Su-25, and they’ve only got about 13 of those. The Saudis have 143 F-15s, and are taking deliveries of the Eurofighter Typhoon, Kuwait has 39 F-18s, the Emirates have 79 F-16s, etc.

    And they are actually a lot more threatened by Iranian missile-carrying nukes. What do you think Iran’s going to nuke first — Jerusalem with Islam’s third holiest site and hundreds of thousands of Palestineans or some random air base in Saudi Arabia?

    *Their 40 Mig-29s are fairly modern, but the Mig-29’s widely considered to be a turkey. This is reflected in it’s low, low price of $10 million. You can’t buy any other new-built fighter these days for less than $20 million, and $100 million is typical.

  • http://centristcoalition.com/blog/ kranky kritter

    Netanyahu won’t do anything without US permission, and he’s not going to get US permission.

    ROTFLMAO!

    They’ll quite probably discuss it with the US. But if Israel deems Iran an imminent threat based on their own assessment of Iran’s progress on offensive nukes, they’ll do everything that they feel is necessary to guarantee their nation’s safety.

    The notion that the US has veto power on this particular aspect of Israeli foreign policy is, quite simply, comical.

  • Jimmy the Dhimmi

    Netanyahu won’t do anything without US permission, and he’s not going to get US permission. He’d expect favors in return, as would Israel’s friends in Congress, and that would make it virtually impossible to solve their dispute with the Palestineans.

    Oh, and don’t forget the whole “From the river to the sea” thing, whereby every palestinian political organization, without exception, seeks to utterly and uncompromisingly smash the Jewish state into oblivion. That kind of throws a wrench into the whole dispute-resolution process as well, don’t ya think?

  • http://detroitskeptic.com/blogs Nick Benjamin

    They’ll quite probably discuss it with the US. But if Israel deems Iran an imminent threat based on their own assessment of Iran’s progress on offensive nukes, they’ll do everything that they feel is necessary to guarantee their nation’s safety.

    I agree that if the Israelis decide Iran is a big enough threat they won’t hesitate.

    But they can’t be sure it would work. The Iranians aren’t stupid. They know what happened to Saddam’s nuclear program in the early 80s. Therefore they’ve widely dispersed their sites. And probably put quite a few of them near residential areas so that if the Israelis do succeed they’ll also blow up a couple pre-schools full of adorable toddlers.

    Even if they’ve got a perfect plan there are major drawbacks to attacking the Iranians without US support. The major one is that this would give Libya a reason to propose the a UN Arms embargo on the Israelis, and at the same time give the US a very good reason not to veto it.

    Look at their military. It’s huge for a country of 5-6 million. They have more troops to equip than the British or Italians. At any given time the IDF has 2-3% of the Israeli population on active duty, and could call up another 5-6% in an emergency. All those troops have M-16s, and M-16s go through 5 lbs of ammo in a single minute. So it’s pretty clear that if the Egyptians attacked Israel the Israelis would need thousands of tons of ammo imported every day or be forced to surrender.

    So the logical result of attacking Iran’s nuclear sites without Obama’s okay is the destruction of Israel by conventional warfare, rather than nuclear warfare. I’ve never accused Netanyahu of being the brightest crayon in the box, but he ain’t suicidal.

    And Jimmy,

    The PLO and Fatah no longer call for Israel’s total destruction. They have long recognized Israel’s right to territory on the Israeli side of the Green Line and more. Hamas has publicly offered a ten-year cease-fire, and hinted that their charter can be changed. Both of these positions are far more pro-peace than the position of Avigdor Lieberman, currently Israel’s foreign minister.