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The “Great Recession” Is Now Technically Over

Yep. That’s right. A group of economic forecasters are projecting that we’ll see growth in the next quarter, so the recession is technically over. And hey, we can all be thankful for that.

However, the pain will linger for years to come.

The problem is that all of the lagging indicators of true economic health (rising employment, wages, spending, etc.) probably won’t start turning around until sometime next year…and even then it’s going to take a while for things to get back to normal.

Here’s more from BizJournal:

The association is expecting the nation’s inflation-adjusted Gross Domestic Product will grow at a rate of roughly 3 percent in the second half of this year. That’s after a sharp 6.4 percent contraction in the first quarter and a 0.7 percent drop in the second quarter.

The association also said the three-year downturn in the housing market appears close to coming to an end, with growth expected next year.

While the unemployment rate is forecast to rise to 10 percent in the first quarter, it is expected to slip to 9.5 percent by the end of 2010.

“The good news is that this deep and long recession appears to be over and, with improving credit markets, the U.S. economy can return to solid growth next year without worry about rising inflation,” Lynn Reaser, the association’s president-elect, said in a release.

And to the point about lagging indicators…here’s a sobering fact about unemployment…

Fewer than 8 percent of the panelists expect lost jobs will be regained before 2012.

If Obama doesn’t actually create a job in the positive direction, that could become a political hot potato for the 2012 election. And, realistically, jobs and spending will probably be the two issues on the GOP’s dart board anyway.

More as it develops…

  • gerryf

    Over? I feel much better now…..

  • Chris

    Justin, whenever I click on the bookmark for the site, i’m getting warnings from avg antivirus. I’m guessing that some of the ads on your site maybe blacklisted, just wanted you to know. It may keep people from coming here. You can delete this comment once you get it 😉

  • http://purecommonsense.net Mike Casey

    This is good news. But it won’t feel like its over for quite some time.

  • gerryf

    It’s good news that Chris is getting warnings from AVG or good news that Donklephont has ads?

  • http://itsthe21stcenturystupid.wordpress.com/ Jim S

    I’m not getting any warnings from Avast.

  • http://itsthe21stcenturystupid.wordpress.com/ Jim S

    What is an economy for? What kind of answer one gives to that question should form the basis for whether you think the current definitions of recession are really meaningful to our society. If you think, as I do, that the only real reason for an economic system is to deliver the greatest good for the greatest number then the current definition is garbage because it just doesn’t relate to “Main Street” any more. By the accepted definition we could reach the end of the recession and yet never see any recovery in jobs or income for the majority of Americans. Classical economics has less value to modern economies than Newtonian physics to physicists even after the 20th century revolutions in the field brought to us by people such as Dirac and Einstein.

  • Alistair

    Justin:

    I think you just spoken way too soon according to this report.

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_stimulus_jobs

  • http://centristcoalition.com/blog/ kranky kritter

    The problem is that all of the lagging indicators of true economic health (rising employment, wages, spending, etc.) probably won’t start turning around until sometime next year…and even then it’s going to take a while for things to get back to normal.

    Right. The only part I quarrel with is the last bit. If you’re smart, you don’t think about things “getting back to normal.” Instead, you think about what the new normal is likely to be for you after this recession. Many folks are not going to get back to normal in the pre-recession sense. Instead, they face substantially lowered expectations. Over the near, intermediate, and even long terms.