Politics

Updating “10 in 10″ on 10-10-10 at 10:10

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What better day and time to update our “10 in 10″ election prognostications? Last we checked in – Nate Silver (our polling analyst of choice) showed that 9 of the 10 seats most likely to change parties were all held by Democrats and he was forecasting a net 6-7 seat Republican gain in the Senate. One month later…

… with less than a month to go – 10 of the top 10 seats most likely to change parties are all held by Democrats and Nate is forecasting an 8-9 seat gain by the GOP. So – despite the nomination of a GOP clown candidate in Delaware (virtually guaranteeing a Democratic victory in that state) the odds of a GOP Senate takeover continue to improve.

Nate still gives the Republicans less than a 1 in 4 chance of retaking the Senate majority outright. But then he is basing his odds purely on the November 2nd mid-term results. As I have maintained throughout, the GOP need only take 8 or 9 more seats to make changing parties an attractive proposition to Lieberman and/or Nelson, and eight or nine seats look likely now.

Most surprising continues to be the race in Nevada. Sharron Angle is a terrible candidate. Harry Reid, as it turns out, is worse. “None of the Above” may be a spoiler.

The most disappointing potential race result for me is the one one that hits closest to home. Fiorina needs to make up some ground, and that will be tough in a state like California with less than 3 weeks remaining. But then… Scott Brown did what Scott Brown did in Massachusetts. Maybe there is just enough of that magic left over to surprise everyone on the left coast. Why wouldn’t California vote for a senator who throws down a shot of tequilla before delivering a stump speech? My last political contributions this season will go to Carly in California, and Kirk in Illinois. These are the seats that will make the difference.

I will make one change to my earlier prediction. Then I thought it unlikely that the GOP would take control of the House, invoking the “100 year Rule” and expecting the GOP to come up just short. My new, improved, and updated prediction is that the most likely scenario is that the GOP will go into 2011 with majority control of both the House and Senate. Nate and Charlie convinced me.

Apparently, Political tidal waves don’t care about 100 year rules, nor how deep a hole the GOP dug for itself in the last two cycles, nor how unconventional the candidates riding the wave may be.

It Looks like I’ll be changing teams again in November.

Suddenly I have a taste for a tall, icy glass of kool-aid.

Originally posted from Divided We Stand United We Fall.

UPDATE: 10-14-10 Some links added and updated since original post

  • http://westanddivided.blogspot.com/ mw

    I back dated this post for obvious reasons. FWIW, the original version was posted on my blog at this date and time. I was out for a few weeks, scrambled to get my blog back on track, then noticed that things have been a little slow around here. I’ll see if I can get a few posts out heading into the election, and If past is prologue, Justin will find my posts motivational.

  • kranky kritter

    I REALLY don’t think Lieberman will join the GOP. They’ve said too many nasty things about him in the past.

    Nelson I can’t speak for since I know little about him. But in general it would be surprising for him to make the treasonous party switch when he can still be a powerful kingmaker by staying with democrats.

    I told you before that “rule” that the Senate has to change first was a dumb one.

  • http://westanddivided.blogspot.com/ mw

    Kranky,
    It is actually easier for Lieberman since, being an Independent, he doesn’t need to change parties. He can just decide to caucus GOP. My impression is that Lieberman does what is good for Lieberman. If the GOP comes up just short now, He’ll only have two years to keep his chairmanship caucusing with the Dems, as the number say a Republican outright majority on 2012 is a fait accompli (11 Republicans defending Senate seats vs. 22 Dems).

    OTOH, if if is close enough (GOP wins 49-50 seats) he’ll have the leverage now to cut a deal with the GOP to keep his chairmanship for at least 4-6 years. He’ll couch it in terms of being good for Connecticut and the country, but if he wants to keep his chairmanship, this will be the time to do it.

    Re: the “rule” – still TBD. It is simply an historical fact that it has always happened that way since we have been directly electing Senators. To be precise, the Senate does not have to flip first – It can also be at the same time. Two ways the historical precedent can remain intact. The GOP can take control of both houses, or the GOP can fail to take either. Both would be surprises.